{"meta":{"generated":"2026-07-24","proposal":"Treasure Valley Light Rail — Comprehensive Regional Transit Proposal","note":"Every constant in this file is either quoted from the TVLR proposal or from one of its cited sources, and carries the source id it came from. Values the proposal states as targets rather than findings are marked `stated: true` and are never used as model inputs — they appear in the interface only as reference bands to check a computed result against.","claimTypes":{"fact":"Established by a cited source.","stated":"Asserted by the proposal as a target or projection, not established by a source.","formula":"Computed in the browser from the inputs shown, all of which are adjustable.","input":"A modelling assumption with a default. The reader can change it."}},"cost":{"perMileBenchmarks":[{"id":"phoenix","label":"Phoenix at-grade LRT","perMileUsd":85000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18","note":"Surface running, no grade separation."},{"id":"viaduct-low","label":"Elevated viaduct — low end","perMileUsd":150000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18"},{"id":"us-average","label":"Recent U.S. light rail average","perMileUsd":202000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18","reference":true},{"id":"viaduct-high","label":"Elevated viaduct — high end","perMileUsd":250000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18"},{"id":"honolulu","label":"Honolulu HART — fully elevated, mismanaged","perMileUsd":525000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s19","flag":"The failure mode the proposal designs against. Driven by change orders and consultant churn, not by the physics of elevation."}],"atGradePerMileUsd":{"low":15000000,"high":25000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18"},"elevatedPerMileUsd":{"low":150000000,"high":250000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s18"},"sacramentoProof":{"label":"Sacramento South Corridor","claim":"fact","source":"s19","note":"Built 100% elevated at below the national median cost per mile. The proof that full grade separation does not require a runaway budget."},"phases":{"phase-1":{"statedMiles":26,"statedCostUsd":{"low":3500000000,"mid":4500000000,"high":5500000000},"claim":"stated","source":"s18","impliedPerMileUsd":{"low":134615385,"mid":173076923,"high":211538462},"note":"The proposal prices Phase I as majority-elevated. The implied per-mile band sits between the at-grade and full-viaduct benchmarks, which is what a majority-elevated blend should look like."},"phase-2":{"statedCostUsd":{"low":1500000000,"mid":2000000000,"high":2500000000},"claim":"stated","note":"Lower blended cost per mile: the long rural segments carry far less crossing conflict and can run at-grade where already fully separated. The proposal assumes roughly 30% private freight contribution.","statedMiles":null},"phase-3":{"statedCostUsd":null,"claim":"stated","note":"Scope- and profile-dependent, conditional on Phase II performance and bi-state compact formation. The proposal keeps Ontario a feasibility study, not a committed line."}},"funding":{"assumedFederalSharePct":55,"claim":"stated","source":"s7","cigCeilingNewStartsPct":60,"cigCeilingSmallStartsPct":80,"cigTotalFederalCapPct":80,"cigAnnualProgramUsd":3800000000,"frontRunnerFederalSharePct":69.5,"frontRunnerSource":"s8","epdPilotMaxFederalPct":25,"epdSource":"s9","note":"At roughly $4.5B, Phase I is unambiguously a New Starts project, where the statutory federal ceiling is 60%. Utah's FrontRunner double-track carries 69.5%, so a 55% assumption is conservative rather than optimistic. Federal dollars disburse against progress benchmarks, not up front."},"allocation":[{"id":"infrastructure","pct":38,"label":"Infrastructure construction","detail":"Track, support columns, bridge retrofitting, safety barriers, and ADA-compliant pedestrian access."},{"id":"vehicles","pct":21,"label":"Rail vehicles and power systems","detail":"Battery-electric or hydrogen-ready rolling stock, plus charging, fuelling, and traction-power infrastructure."},{"id":"stations","pct":14,"label":"Station construction and amenities","detail":"Intermodal platforms, security, ticketing, weather shelters, and rural park-and-rides."},{"id":"systems","pct":12,"label":"Systems integration","detail":"Train control, smart signalling, real-time tracking, cybersecurity, and system-wide data infrastructure."},{"id":"environmental","pct":9,"label":"Environmental compliance","detail":"Noise mitigation, wildlife crossing integration, impact reporting, and carbon-offset deployment."},{"id":"oversight","pct":6,"label":"Oversight and administration","detail":"Independent audits, citizen advisory boards, public dashboards, and legal compliance."}],"allocationClaim":"stated","inputs":{"bandPositionPct":{"min":0,"max":100,"step":5,"default":50,"basis":"The proposal states each stage's cost as a band, not a point — $3.5–5.5B for Phase I, $1.5–2.5B for Phase II (§3.5). This slides every priced figure across its own stated band; 50% is the stated planning midpoint."},"federalSharePct":{"min":0,"max":60,"step":5,"default":55,"basis":"CIG caps the federal share at 60% for a New Starts project (49 U.S.C. §5309). The proposal assumes 55% — conservative against FrontRunner's actual 69.5% federal share."}}},"valueCapture":{"catchmentRadiusMiles":0.5,"catchmentSource":"s22","aptaNarUpliftPct":{"residentialLow":4,"residentialHigh":24,"commercialLow":5,"commercialHigh":42,"claim":"fact","source":"s22","note":"Measured across seven metros including Phoenix. Residential within a half-mile of fixed transit; commercial per square foot."},"proposalUpliftPct":{"low":8,"high":17,"claim":"stated","note":"The proposal's own narrower band, which it places inside the APTA/NAR range on the argument that the premium holds in growing markets and collapses in shrinking ones."},"statedRollupUsd":{"low":2100000000,"high":3400000000,"claim":"stated","note":"The proposal carries this as an explicitly uncertified target: 'plausible but cannot be certified until the actual parcel base in each station zone is modelled. It is a target, and it is labeled as one.' This interface models that parcel base on real geometry, and the result does not reach the target — see reconciliation."},"inputs":{"medianHomeValueUsd":{"default":530000,"min":250000,"max":1200000,"step":10000,"claim":"input","basis":"Ada County's 2026 median single-family home value. Multiplied by the actual 2020 Census housing-unit count (HU100) inside each station's half-mile catchment, so the residential base is a measured count times one sourced price rather than an assumed density.","source":"s23"},"commercialValuePerAcreUsd":{"default":1800000,"min":200000,"max":8000000,"step":100000,"claim":"input","basis":"Assessed value per acre of commercial and industrial land inside the catchments. The acreage is measured from land cover; only the price is assumed. This is the input that most needs replacing with the county assessor's parcel roll.","warning":"Assumption. Replace with the assessor's parcel roll before forming any Local Improvement District."},"upliftPct":{"default":12,"min":4,"max":24,"step":1,"claim":"input","basis":"Bounded by the APTA/NAR residential range so it cannot be set outside the evidence. The proposal's own band is 8-17%.","source":"s22"},"lidCaptureRatePct":{"default":25,"min":0,"max":100,"step":5,"claim":"input","basis":"Share of assessed uplift a Local Improvement District assessment recovers for debt service. The proposal specifies opt-in LIDs with sunset clauses but sets no capture rate."}},"method":{"claim":"formula","text":"Residential base = Census housing units (HU100) inside the half-mile catchments x median home value. Commercial base = measured commercial and industrial acres x assessed value per acre. Uplift = (residential + commercial) x uplift rate. LID recovers uplift x capture rate. Housing units, residents and acreage are measured per station from real data; only the two prices and the two rates are assumptions, and all four are on screen.","measuredInputs":["housing units per catchment","residents per catchment","commercial and industrial acres per catchment"],"assumedInputs":["median home value","commercial value per acre","uplift rate","LID capture rate"]}},"traffic":{"i84NampaDailyVehicles":{"value":100000,"claim":"fact","source":"s10"},"wideningCostPerMileUsd":{"value":54000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s10","note":"Roughly what ITD spent adding one lane each way across 2.8 miles of I-84 through Nampa (~$150M)."},"itdCorridorPlanUsd":{"low":300000000,"high":400000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s11"},"peakTravelDoublingYear":{"value":2055,"claim":"fact","source":"s11","note":"ITD projects peak travel times nearly double by 2055 absent structural change — 'the peak hour becomes the peak hours.'"},"regionalFundingGapUsdPerYear":{"value":193000000,"claim":"fact","source":"s12"},"inputs":{"ridershipScalePct":{"default":100,"min":40,"max":130,"step":5,"claim":"input","basis":"How much of the measured peer relationship this corridor achieves. At 100% the fitted rates are applied exactly as observed at UTA. Opening as a single line with no feeder bus network is the reason to move this down; twenty years of growth around the stations is the reason to move it up."},"priorCarSharePct":{"default":65,"min":10,"max":100,"step":5,"claim":"input","basis":"Share of boardings that would otherwise have been a car trip rather than a walk, a bus trip, or a trip not taken. The rest are not cars removed."},"autoOccupancy":{"default":1.2,"min":1,"max":2.5,"step":0.1,"claim":"input","basis":"Average occupancy of a displaced commute vehicle. Higher occupancy means each boarding removes less of a car."}},"note":"Boardings are not an input. They are predicted station by station from the population measured around each one, using rates fitted to a real operating rail system whose catchments were measured the same way. Two boardings make one round trip and a round trip removes two vehicle trips, so the factors cancel: vehicle trips removed = boardings x prior-car share / occupancy. Each station is set against the real ITD AADT on the segment it sits on rather than against one figure for the whole corridor.","i84PeakSegmentDailyVehicles":{"value":151500,"claim":"fact","source":"s26","note":"ITD 2025 AADT on I-84 between Eagle Road (exit 46) and the I-184 junction (exit 49) — the busiest segment on the corridor."}},"emissions":{"carLbsCo2PerPassengerMile":{"value":0.47,"claim":"fact","source":"s21"},"lightRailGramsCo2PerPassengerMile":{"value":99,"claim":"fact","source":"s21"},"traxBtuPerPassengerMile":{"value":2614,"claim":"fact","source":"s21"},"statedAnnualTonnesRange":{"low":15000,"high":40000,"claim":"stated","source":"s21"},"airshedNote":{"claim":"fact","source":"s21","text":"Generating emissions occur outside the valley's airshed, so a UTA study found light rail a net reducer of in-valley pollutants — which matters more than the headline tonnage during a Treasure Valley winter inversion."},"note":"Annual tonnes avoided = annual passenger-miles x prior-car share x (0.47 lb / 2204.62) minus annual passenger-miles x 99 g / 1,000,000. Passenger-miles come from the modelled boardings and the trip length the network geometry implies, so the traffic and emissions panels can never disagree."},"growth":{"population":[{"year":2020,"adaCanyon":726072,"claim":"fact","source":"s13"},{"year":2026,"adaCanyon":876760,"claim":"fact","source":"s13"},{"year":2050,"adaCanyon":1100000,"claim":"fact","source":"s13","projected":true}],"jobGrowthPctBy2040":{"value":86,"claim":"fact","source":"s13"},"fastestGrowingMidsizeMetro":{"claim":"fact","source":"s14"},"note":"Roughly 150,000 residents added across Ada and Canyon Counties since the 2020 Census, against a transportation programme already $193M a year short of its own needs through 2050."},"gates":{"claim":"stated","note":"No phase proceeds unless the previous phase clears every gate. This is the proposal's answer to scope creep.","phaseOne":[{"metric":"On-time ridership","threshold":"70%"},{"metric":"Cost recovery","threshold":"40%"},{"metric":"Public satisfaction","threshold":"90% (monthly survey)"}],"phaseTwoTrigger":">80% satisfaction from Phase I riders, and rural station land acquired without eminent domain.","phaseThreeTrigger":"Regional surplus budget and positive ROI on Phase II ridership and freight."},"legal":{"blocker":{"citation":"Idaho Code §40-2109(1)","claim":"fact","source":"s1","text":"Only one regional public transportation authority may exist within a county, with exclusive jurisdiction over publicly funded transportation in that county. In Ada and Canyon Counties that authority is already Valley Regional Transit."},"arguments":[{"id":"multi-county","citation":"Idaho Code §40-2105","claim":"fact","source":"s2","text":"The statute already authorises multi-county regional authorities spanning contiguous parts of one or more counties. The legal chassis exists; only the exclusivity clause needs modernising."},{"id":"honored-in-breach","citation":"Idaho Code §40-1406","claim":"fact","source":"s3","text":"Ada County already runs two transportation authorities side by side: ACHD, statutorily empowered to operate park-and-ride and rideshare programmes, and VRT. The 'only one' rule is a political convention the region already violates."},{"id":"2004-artifact","citation":"Senate Bill 1269 (2004)","claim":"fact","source":"s1","text":"The exclusivity language was added by a bill titled 'relating to intracity light rail systems' — drafted for a single city, before the valley became the fastest-growing mid-sized metro in the country."}],"tools":{"citation":"Idaho Code §40-2111; HB 246 (2007)","claim":"fact","source":"s4","text":"Once authorised, a regional authority may issue revenue bonds and, with voter approval, levy a dedicated local sales and use tax."}},"sources":[{"id":"s1","label":"Idaho Code §40-2109(1); Senate Bill 1269 (2004)","url":"https://legislature.idaho.gov/sessioninfo/2004/legislation/S1269/"},{"id":"s2","label":"Idaho Code §40-2105 — creation of regional authorities","url":"https://legislature.idaho.gov/statutesrules/idstat/Title40/T40CH21/SECT40-2105/"},{"id":"s3","label":"Idaho Code §40-1406 — countywide highway district powers","url":"https://legislature.idaho.gov/statutesrules/idstat/title40/t40ch14/sect40-1406/"},{"id":"s4","label":"Idaho Code §40-2111; HB 246 (2007) — revenue bonds and local option tax","url":"https://legislature.idaho.gov/sessioninfo/2007/legislation/h0246/"},{"id":"s6","label":"UTA TRAX + FrontRunner capital cost; UTA executive director on the Boise–Caldwell corridor (KTVB, 2019)","url":"https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/growing-idaho/277-0fb40c4b-f794-4148-a139-361e6ac8ec57"},{"id":"s7","label":"FTA Capital Investment Grants programme fact sheet","url":"https://www.transit.dot.gov/funding/grants/fact-sheet-capital-investment-grants-program"},{"id":"s8","label":"FTA CIG profile — Utah FrontRunner Strategic Double Track (69.5% federal)","url":"https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2023-03/UT-Salt-Lake-City-FrontRunner-Strategic-Double-Track-Project-Profile-FY24_0.pdf"},{"id":"s9","label":"FTA Expedited Project Delivery pilot — FY26 Annual Report on Funding Recommendations","url":"https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2025-05/FY26-Annual-Report-on-Funding-Recommendations.pdf"},{"id":"s10","label":"I-84 Nampa widening cost and traffic volume (Crapo/Risch release; Idaho Press)","url":"https://www.crapo.senate.gov/media/newsreleases/i-84-to-be-widened-in-canyon-county"},{"id":"s11","label":"ITD I-84 corridor plan and 2055 peak-travel projection (BoiseDev, June 2026)","url":"https://boisedev.com/news/2026/06/17/i-84-improvements-itd-idaho-boise-meridian-mountain-home-nampa/"},{"id":"s12","label":"COMPASS Communities in Motion 2050 — $193M/year funding shortfall","url":"https://cim2050.compassidaho.org/"},{"id":"s13","label":"COMPASS population and job growth (Idaho Business Review, May 2026)","url":"https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/05/18/treasure-valley-population-grows-150000-six-years/"},{"id":"s14","label":"COMPASS demographic report (2022) — fastest-growing mid-sized metro","url":"https://cim2050.compassidaho.org/wp-content/uploads/Demographics.pdf"},{"id":"s18","label":"Elevated vs at-grade construction cost; U.S. LRT average (Buildermuse 2026; Manhattan Institute)","url":"https://manhattan.institute/article/the-economics-of-urban-light-rail-a-guide-for-planners-and-citizens"},{"id":"s19","label":"FTA Capital Costs Database / Eno Center — Sacramento and Honolulu","url":"https://projectdelivery.enotrans.org/fta-capital-costs-database/"},{"id":"s21","label":"Transit emissions — CBO; NTD/DOE; Environ. Res. Commun. (2019)","url":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab3ca7"},{"id":"s22","label":"APTA / National Association of Realtors (2019) — station-area property value","url":"https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/property-values-thrive-near-transit-study-finds/564982/"},{"id":"s23","label":"Ada County median single-family home value, 2026 (Idaho Property Tax Almanac)","url":"https://propertytaxalmanac.com/idaho/ada/"},{"id":"s24","label":"Utah Transit Authority — average weekday boardings per rail platform (Utah SGID)","url":"https://opendata.gis.utah.gov/datasets/uta-stops-and-most-recent-ridership"},{"id":"s25","label":"U.S. Census Bureau TIGERweb — 2020 Census blocks (POP100, HU100)","url":"https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/tigerwebmain/TIGERweb_apps.html"},{"id":"s26","label":"Idaho Transportation Department — Annual Average Daily Traffic, 2025","url":"https://itd.idaho.gov/traffic-data"}]}